Housing & Mortgage Market Update

As this article is written, news headlines continue about the extraordinary rescue of a U.S. fighter pilot deep within hostile territory in Iran—a mission so daring it sounds more like a movie than real life.  After surviving for nearly two days in rugged mountain terrain while evading enemy forces, the downed airman was recovered in a massive, high-risk operation involving special forces, coordinated deception, and dozens of aircraft. It’s a powerful reminder that behind the headlines and market movements are real people, real risks, and moments of incredible courage unfolding in real time.  It also underscores a very important reality: geopolitical developments can have swift and meaningful impacts on global financial systems, energy markets, and ultimately, the cost of borrowing here at home.

Mortgage Rates: Elevated and Unsettled

Mortgage rates experienced notable volatility throughout March, largely driven by inflation concerns tied to rising energy costs. Rates increased from the high 5% range at the end of February to approximately 6.5% by late March. While there were intermittent periods of improvement, markets remained sensitive to both economic data and geopolitical developments.

Even in the event of a near-term resolution to the Iran conflict, economists caution against expecting an immediate reversal in rates. So-called “second-round effects” where initial cost increases ripple through the broader economy can prolong inflationary pressures. Despite recent rate increases, it is worth noting that current mortgage rates remain below the peaks observed in 2025, offering some encouragement to prospective borrowers.

By The Numbers (average national rates for well qualified borrowers as of 3/31/26)

• 30-Year Conventional: 6.494%
• 15-Year Conventional: 5.775%
• 30-Year FHA: 6.233%

Housing Inventory: Signs of Progress

March brought a modest but welcome increase in housing inventory. More homeowners entered the market, providing buyers with slightly improved options compared to the constrained conditions of recent years.

However, supply still falls short of what would be considered a balanced market. Well-priced homes, particularly in desirable locations, continue to generate strong interest and often sell quickly. While conditions are improving, competition has not disappeared.

Home Prices: Stable and Resilient

Home prices remained largely stable throughout March. The rapid appreciation seen in prior years has moderated, but most markets have avoided meaningful price declines. This stability reflects continued underlying demand, even in a higher-rate environment.

For buyers, this shift reduces the likelihood of aggressive bidding wars. For sellers, it reinforces that home values remain well-supported.

Buyer Activity: Seasonal Momentum Builds

As expected, buyer activity began to accelerate in March with the onset of the spring homebuying season. Improved inventory and seasonal patterns contributed to increased engagement from prospective buyers.

That said, affordability remains a central concern. Many buyers are proceeding with greater caution—evaluating financing options closely, reassessing budgets, and, in some cases, adjusting expectations around property size or location. What does this mean?

For Buyers:
Preparation is critical in today’s market. Securing pre-qualification, understanding your financial parameters, and maintaining flexibility will position you to act decisively when opportunities arise.

For Sellers:
While demand remains healthy, buyers are more discerning and sensitive to interest rates. Strategic pricing, strong presentation, and professional guidance are essential to achieving optimal results.

Refinancing Activity

Although broad refinancing activity has yet to return, targeted opportunities exist, even with higher rates under some of these scenarios:

• Higher-rate loan from 2023–2024: Homeowners with rates at or above 7% may find today’s 15-year refinance rates (averaging 5.68%) an attractive opportunity to reduce total interest costs.
• Meaningful rate drop: A common rule of thumb is to refinance if you can lower your current rate by at least 0.5% to 1%.
• Cash flow improvements:  If you have other debt at high interest rates like credit cards, refinancing for debt consolidation can make sense.
• Long-term stay: Refinancing is most beneficial if you plan to stay in the home past your break-even point—the time it takes for monthly savings to cover closing costs, which typically range from 2% to 6% of the loan amount.

Additional Market Trends

Recent data highlights continued strength in key segments of the housing market. International buyers purchased approximately 78,000 U.S. properties over the past year—a 44% increase and the first annual rise since 2017, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Notably, nearly half of these transactions were completed in cash.

Additionally, the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals reported that Hispanic households accounted for a net gain of 441,000 homeowner households in 2025—the largest annual increase since tracking began in 1975—underscoring the growing influence of this demographic in the U.S. housing market.

Looking Ahead

As we move further into the spring season, the housing market is expected to continue gaining momentum. The trajectory of inflation and interest rates will remain key drivers, particularly as markets respond to both domestic policy signals and global developments. Overall, the market appears to be transitioning toward a more balanced and sustainable environment—moving away from the extremes of recent years and toward steadier, more predictable conditions.

For those navigating today’s market, staying informed and working with a knowledgeable mortgage professional remains the best way to make confident, well-timed decisions.

Disclosures: Rates are national averages and move daily; your rate will vary based on credit, loan type, occupancy, down payment, lock period, and market conditions. This is not a commitment to lend. All information is believed reliable but not guaranteed; please verify key figures that affect your decision. Always consult a financial advisor or lender before making major financial decisions.