July 2026

 

August has arrived, which means it’s time for July’s Mortgage Market Minute.

Everyone’s Asking Me the Same Question…

 

Over the past few weeks, I’ve probably answered one question more than any other:

 

“Joe…what happened to mortgage rates?”

 

It’s a fair question. Rates moved noticeably higher during the second half of July, and people naturally want to know what has changed.

 

My answer has been the same every time. The housing market didn’t suddenly change overnight.

 

Headlines Don’t Tell the Whole Story

Financial headlines are designed to grab your attention but do not always tell the whole story. When mortgage rates move higher, you’ll often see headlines suggesting the housing market has come to a halt. That’s simply not true.

 

Yes, rates moved higher because investors became concerned that high oil prices and inflation may take longer to cool, which pushed bond yields higher. Since mortgage rates are tied closely to the bond market, they moved higher too.

 

But rates are only one piece of the homebuying equation. If that’s all you focus on, you’re missing the rest of the story.

 

Here’s What I’m Seeing Every Day

The biggest change I’m seeing isn’t mortgage rates. It’s buyer confidence. A year or two ago, buyers often felt like they had to make a decision within hours of a home hitting the market.

 

Today, that’s changing.

 

Homes are staying on the market a little longer. Sellers are helping with closing costs again. Buyers have more room to ask questions, negotiate, and make thoughtful decisions.

 

That’s a healthier market than we’ve had in quite some time.

 

A Question Worth Asking

Instead of asking where rates will be six months from now, I think there is a better question to ask:

 

What happens if I wait?

 

Could rates fall? Absolutely.

Could they rise? That’s possible too.

 

But if rates fall significantly, thousands of buyers who have been waiting may jump back into the market. More buyers often mean more competition and higher home prices.

 

Waiting for a lower rate doesn’t always save money.

 

Market By the Numbers

Here are a few numbers I’m watching this month. They help explain where the market is today.

 

Mortgage Rates

The average 30-year fixed mortgage is currently around 6.7% after rising during the latter half of July.

 

Housing Inventory

Active housing inventory grew very slightly, with more homes available than this time last year, giving buyers more choices and reducing some of the urgency we’ve experienced over the past few years.

 

Home Prices

National Association of REALTORS reports home values increased 1.8% from a year ago. This is a much slower and healthier pace than we saw during the pandemic housing boom.

 

What I’m Watching Next

As we head into fall, I’m watching three things:

 

Inflation – Continued improvement could help mortgage rates gradually move lower.

Employment – A strong labor market is good, but too much strength can keep inflation elevated.

Housing Inventory – More homes for sale should continue giving buyers more choices.

 

One Final Thought

After nearly three decades in this business, one thing hasn’t changed. Very few people buy their home at the “perfect” time. They buy when they’re financially ready, they’ve found the right home, and the payment fits their budget.

 

If rates improve later, refinancing is always an option.

 

Trying to perfectly time the market usually doesn’t work. Buying the right home at the right time in your life matters a lot more than chasing the perfect interest rate.

 

As always, if you have questions about today’s market or want to talk through your options, I’m always happy to help.

 

Disclosures: We are an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS # 635768. Rates are national averages and move daily; your rate will vary based on credit, loan type, occupancy, down payment, lock period, and market conditions. This is not a commitment to lend. All information is believed reliable but not guaranteed; please verify key figures that affect your decision. Always consult a financial advisor or lender before making major financial decisions.